The long-term peak in 1-month forward Treasuries is now 5.91% and well above the shortest maturity forward rate at 4.49%.

Obsidian’s greatest strength is the freedom to shape your notes in a way that fits your thought process. Whether you’re ...

We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve ... yield curve is an important indicator of future recessions. A recent example is this paper by Alex ...

Probability and Statistics Group research at the School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences at Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.