The model presents its forecasts probabilistically, drawing from a set of 50 or more predictions to generate its results. All of this occurs far more quickly than with traditional forecasting methods.

The overhaul isn’t simply a response to recent forecasting errors, bank officials say. Computer technology improves, economic theory advances and all models have a best-before date.

It can produce one 15-day forecast in just eight minutes using a single Google Cloud TPU v5. Physics-based models like ENS might need several hours to do the same thing.

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