It is an established macroeconomic theory that when the yield curve inverts, a recession is nigh. The key bonds to watch are government bonds, such as those of the U.S. Treasury and the Bank of Canada ...

The yield curve briefly inverted last week, sparking recession fears and inciting a market sell-off. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell almost 3% last Wednesday, Aug. 14, on the news. The inverted yield ...

Specifically, when the curve is inverted—that is, the yield on three-month Treasury bills is greater than the yield on the 10-year Treasury note—a recession is likely in the near term.

For example, the 2s/10s yield curve is at its flattest point since August 2020 at just 50 basis points, collapsing in half since the beginning of the year, with the potential for inversion if things ...

Citi economist Veronica Clark published a report noting that based on the Canadian yield curve alone, there is a 60-per-cent probability of a domestic recession ahead. However, Ms. Clark believes ...

Canada’s inverted yield curve may be flashing recession signs, but it hasn’t prevented investors from enjoying some of the best quarterly returns in years. The plunging bond yields boosted gains on ...

If the yield curve is only inverted or flat for a short time, then there shouldn’t be much of an effect on TD’s earnings. Why it could be a threat ...