People have always wanted to see into the future—and traders even more so. Yet, there’s no magical crystal ball to reveal the ...

Plotting this on a graph creates an upward sloping yield curve. Sometimes, yields are lower for investments held for longer time periods than for identical investments with shorter terms.

The yield curve briefly inverted last week, sparking recession fears and inciting a market sell-off. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell almost 3% last Wednesday, Aug. 14, on the news. The inverted yield ...

The yield curve plots the yield of all Treasury securities and investors watch its shape to extrapolate market expectations for U.S. growth and monetary policy. Typically, the curve slopes upwards ...

Lower Yields, High Prices As seen in the chart below, the yield curve has shifted downward in 2019, driving the outperformance of broad market bond ETFs (lower yields = higher bond ETF prices).

Economists often look to the US Treasury bond market for clues about when a recession might come. Specifically, they examine the so-called yield curve. When it’s “inverted,” as it has been since about ...