Colorado State University, a school renowned for its hurricane research, said it expects “above-normal” tropical activity this year. The early-season prediction, released Thursday, stems from warm sea-surface temperatures, and the potential for conditions that kindle tropical activity.

CSU forecasters predict an above-average probability for at least one major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. or Caribbean.

Last year was a busy hurricane season with storm after storm racing across the Caribbean, bringing multiple storms ashore in Florida, ravaging rains to the Carolina mountains and strong winds to downtown Houston; another robust season is likely to occur in the Atlantic in 2025.